Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 57%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (26%), from expected goals of 0.3 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 19%, both teams to score 19%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Nott'm Forest 19th in the league, Arsenal 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups