Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 78%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (22%), from expected goals of 0.3 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 19%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Newcastle's 17.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Arsenal 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups