Matchup Intelligence
Man Utd
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 50%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.
Man Utd carry the heavier absence: 30.5% of their squad weight against Arsenal's 15.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Man Utd 16th in the league, Arsenal 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Man Utd 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (1st) and ball recovery (3rd); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and defensive solidity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 14th of 20.
Predicted Lineups