Matchup Intelligence
Man Utd
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 56%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (18%), from expected goals of 0.7 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 37%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Man Utd's 11.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Man Utd 7th in the league, Arsenal 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Man Utd 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and creativity (1st); weakest on defensive solidity, 7th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups