Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 54%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (14%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 15.7% of their squad weight against Leeds's 7.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Leeds 19th in the league, Arsenal 6th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and defensive solidity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 14th of 20.
Predicted Lineups