Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 68%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (22%), from expected goals of 0.4 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 26%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Leeds's 8.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Leeds 19th in the league, Arsenal 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups