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Premier League / Fixtures / Match Result
Matchweek 4Saturday, 12 September 2026 · 15:00 BSTReferee: Andy Madley · 4 cards/game
Story of the match
Nott'm Forest beat Aston Villa 2–1. On expected goals it was Aston Villa 0.8, Nott'm Forest 2.3 — the scoreline broadly matched the balance of chances. Our pre-match model had called it, giving the result a 42% chance.
Auto-generated from the match's xG, biggest chance and result — no editorial spin.
Post-Match Review
Post-Match Review
Aston VillaxGNott'm Forest
0.82–2.30
Actual1–2
Result reflected the xG
Finishing (G − xG)+0.18·-0.30
Model callNott'm Forest(gave this result 42%)✓ correct
Match Preview
Recent form
Aston Villa
LLD
Form 130-5Nott'm Forest
LDD
Form 242-3Head-to-head
No recent meetings
Rest & congestion
Aston Villa7d rest · 2 in 14 days
Nott'm Forest7d rest · 1 in 14 days
Market Verdict
De-vigged bookmaker closing odds — the market's pre-match view.
43%
28%
30%
Aston Villa43%Draw28%Nott'm Forest30%✓
Match Events
HOME
90'
🔄25'
🟨43'
🟨45+3'
🔄45'
🟨45'
🔄45'
⚽46'
🟨56'
🔄63'
🔄63'
⚽74'
🟨74'
🔄75'
🟨80'
🔄82'
🔄83'
⚽88'
🔄90+1'
🟨90+5'
AWAY
▾ All Events
Pau↑ Mings
25'🔄
43'🟨
Ndoye
45+3'🟨
Murillo
N.Jackson↑ Abraham
45'🔄
N.Jackson
45'🟨
George Hemmings↑ Alysson
45'🔄
46'⚽
DelapMurillo
56'🟨
Schlager
Buendía↑ Mbaye
63'🔄
Barkley↑ Manzambi
63'🔄
AlyssonMcGinn
74'⚽
74'🟨
Delap
75'🔄
Ndoye↑ Igor Jesus
80'🟨
McAtee
82'🔄
McAtee↑ I.Sangaré
Maatsen
83'🔄
88'⚽
Igor JesusGibbs-White
90+1'🔄
Delap↑ Wood
Mings
90+5'🟨
Lineups
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1
GZion Suzuki
DAaron Wan-Bissaka
DVictor Lindelöf
DPau Torres↓
DIan Maatsen↓
MBoubacar Kamara
MRoss Barkley↓
MJohn McGinn
MEmiliano Buendía↓
MGeorge Hemmings↓
FNicolas Jackson↓
Bench
FTammy Abraham↑
GMarco Bizot
FAlysson↑
DMatteo Ruggeri
MJohan Manzambi↑
FAlejandro Garnacho
MLamare Bogarde
FIbrahim Mbaye↑
DTyrone Mings↑
Nott'm Forest
3-4-2-1
GMatz Sels
DOla Aina
DOusmane Diomande
DMurillo
MDaniel Muñoz
MJames McAtee↓
MXaver Schlager
MNeco Williams
FDan Ndoye↓
FMorgan Gibbs-White
FLiam Delap↓
Bench
GJohn Victor
FArnaud Kalimuendo
MNicolás Domínguez
FIgor Jesus↑
FChris Wood↑
DLuca Netz
MRyan Yates
FCallum Hudson-Odoi
MIbrahim Sangaré↑
Statistics
Aston VillaNott'm Forest
53.6%
Possession
46.4%
7
Total Shots
22
5
On Target
7
0.82
xG
2.30
6
Corners
1
11
Fouls
16
0
Offsides
4
5
Saves
5
82.2%
Pass Accuracy
85.8%