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Premier League / Fixtures / Match Result
Matchweek 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 17:30 BSTReferee: Jarred Gillett · 4.6 cards/game
Story of the match
Aston Villa beat Newcastle 1–0. On expected goals it was Newcastle 1.0, Aston Villa 1.6 — the scoreline broadly matched the balance of chances. Our pre-match model missed this one — it gave the actual result only a 27% chance.
Auto-generated from the match's xG, biggest chance and result — no editorial spin.
Post-Match Review
Post-Match Review
NewcastlexGAston Villa
0.99–1.57
Actual0–1
Result reflected the xG
Finishing (G − xG)-0.99·-0.57
Model callNewcastle(gave this result 27%)✗ missed
Match Preview
Recent form
Newcastle
WDLWL
Form 438-11Aston Villa
LDLWD
Form 376-7Head-to-head
No recent meetings
Rest & congestion
Newcastle5d rest · 1 in 14 days
Aston Villa7d rest · 1 in 14 days
Market Verdict
De-vigged bookmaker closing odds — the market's pre-match view.
44%
25%
31%
Newcastle44%Draw25%Aston Villa31%✓
Match Events
HOME
90'
🟨18'
🟨18'
🟨25'
🟨28'
⚽36'
🔄45'
🟨53'
🟨55'
🔄56'
🔄56'
🔄72'
🔄72'
🔄72'
🔄77'
🟨78'
🟨86'
🔄90'
AWAY
▾ All Events
Joelinton
18'🟨
Botman
18'🟨
25'🟨
Gomes
28'🟨
Alysson
36'⚽
ManzambiGomes
45'🔄
Alysson↑ McGinn
N.Gonzalez
53'🟨
Wissa
55'🟨
Willock↑ Osula
56'🔄
Fernandez-Pardo↑ Touré
56'🔄
72'🔄
Gomes↑ Barkley
72'🔄
Manzambi↑ Mbaye
72'🔄
Buendía↑ Goretzka
77'🔄
Wan-Bissaka↑ Pau
Osula
78'🟨
Thiaw
86'🟨
Joelinton↑ Burn
90'🔄
Lineups
Newcastle
4-2-3-1
GLukás Hornícek
DLewis Miley
DMalick Thiaw
DSven Botman
DLewis Hall
MJoelinton↓
MNico González
MMatias Fernandez-Pardo↓
MJoe Willock↓
MHarvey Barnes
FYoane Wissa
Bench
DFabian Schär
MSean Steur
MAladji Bamba
FWilliam Osula↑
FBazoumana Touré↑
GNick Pope
DAmar Dedic
MJacob Murphy
DDan Burn↑
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1
GZion Suzuki
DMatty Cash
DVictor Lindelöf
DTyrone Mings
DAaron Wan-Bissaka↓
MBoubacar Kamara
MJoão Gomes↓
MAlysson↓
MJohan Manzambi↓
MEmiliano Buendía↓
FNicolas Jackson
Bench
MJohn McGinn↑
FIbrahim Mbaye↑
MLamare Bogarde
MLeon Goretzka↑
MRoss Barkley↑
FBrian Madjo
DPau Torres↑
GMarco Bizot
DTaylor Harwood-Bellis
Statistics
NewcastleAston Villa
49.3%
Possession
50.7%
16
Total Shots
15
1
On Target
3
0.99
xG
1.57
4
Corners
5
14
Fouls
11
5
Offsides
0
2
Saves
1
83%
Pass Accuracy
80.3%